Thailand property market 2026: the scissors and the data centres

Thailand does not have one property market in 2026. It has two, and they are moving in opposite directions. In downtown Bangkok, the average asking price for a new condominium rises from THB 315,000 per square metre in 2025 to a forecast THB 360,000 in 2026 — up 14.3%. Over the same period, in the midtown and suburban market, it falls from THB 84,000 to THB 76,000 — down 9.5%. Same country, same city, same year. CBRE Research, which published these series in February 2026, also places the condominium at the bottom of its cycle and sums up the outlook in one line: "more activity, but another challenging year".

The scissors: two markets under one name

CBRE Research's Bangkok series are the most readable in the market — and the most unsettling.

The top of the market is becoming scarcer and more valuable. Total supply of luxury-and-above condominiums in Bangkok stays below 10,000 units, with a take-up rate of 93% in 2025, expected at 83% in 2026. Up to half of new downtown projects in 2026 are expected to be super-luxury. The bottom of the market, meanwhile, absorbs a doubling of launches and falling asking prices.

A methodological warning is needed, because it is routinely skipped elsewhere. The Thai Condominium Association expects around 17,000 condominium launches in 2026 nationwide — the lowest level in twenty years — while CBRE forecasts 40,000 launches for Bangkok alone. The two figures contradict each other head-on. Scopes and methods differ, and the gap has not been reconciled publicly. We give both rather than pick the one that suits the argument.

Why are 40% of mortgage applications rejected?

Because the binding constraint is no longer demand; it is credit. In July 2026, the Real Estate Information Center (REIC) and the country's property associations converged on a rejection rate of around 40% for individual mortgage applications, in the first half of 2026 as over the whole of 2025. The Thai Condominium Association puts it at 40 to 50%.

The consequences show up in prices. New units trade at discounts of 10 to 30%. Resale units change hands 20 to 30% below new, and at least 50% below when renovation is needed. In the areas tracked by the REIC, condominium prices are down 8.3% year on year. According to the Thai Condominium Association, the average time needed to sell out a project has stretched from two or three years to five or six.

Stock explains the rest: around 210,000 unsold new homes — four to five years of absorption — plus 220,000 to 230,000 resale units. In total, more than THB 1.3 trillion is tied up.

The Bank of Thailand has announced a relaxation of the loan-to-value ratio to up to 100% for properties under THB 10 million, for July 2026 to June 2027. We have not found the text confirming its final enactment after the June 2026 public consultation, and we say so. But the key point lies elsewhere: even at 100% financing, banks keep their responsible-lending criteria and still turn down four applications in ten. Relaxing the ratio does not lift the credit constraint. It is the point most competing content misses.

For a foreign buyer paying cash from abroad — the most common case — this constraint is not an obstacle but a negotiating advantage, provided the funds are transferred into Thailand in the documented way that foreign ownership requires.

The 0.01% measure you will not benefit from

On 30 June 2026, the Cabinet decided to cut the transfer fee from 2% to 0.01% and the mortgage registration fee from 1% to 0.01%, for the period from 1 July 2026 to 30 June 2027, under a THB 7 million cap (€182,400) that applies to both the purchase price and the appraised value. The measure applies once published in the Royal Gazette; the law firm Tilleke & Gibbins reports publication on 1 July 2026, which we have not been able to confirm ourselves. The officially expected impact is THB 540.81 billion of transactions a year and up to 1.06 points of GDP.

The measure targets individual buyers of Thai nationality purchasing for their own use, as well as sellers. A foreign buyer is not eligible and pays the 2%.

It is one of the most widespread errors in property content aimed at foreign buyers, and it is not a trivial one: on a THB 7 million property, it represents THB 139,300 — about €3,630 — presented as saved but in fact owed.

Who is buying: a reshuffle, not a retreat

The REIC's first-half 2026 figures, published at the end of August, are more interesting than their headline.

Volume is down 8.8%, value only 1.5%: the average ticket is rising. This is not a market emptying out; it is a market recomposing upwards and by nationality. Geography follows: Russian buyers favour Phuket and Chonburi, Chinese buyers Bangkok and Chonburi, buyers from Myanmar Bangkok.

One clarification, because the error circulates: these percentages refer to the value of transfers, not the number of units. A 75.9% increase in value is not a 75.9% increase in the number of buyers.

Data centres: what is approved, and what is only projected

This is the industrial story of the year, and the most poorly reported.

What is approved, by the Board of Investment (BOI), Thailand's investment promotion agency: THB 728 billion across 36 applications in 2025, against THB 98.5 billion in 2024 — a 7.4-fold increase. Then, at a single meeting on 6 May 2026, THB 958 billion approved, of which THB 913 billion (95%) for data centres. Three projects account for that amount: TikTok System (Thailand), a ByteDance subsidiary, for THB 842 billion (€21.9 billion) in Bangkok, Samut Prakan and Chachoengsao — the largest single investment ever approved in the country; Skyline Data Center, from the Emirati DAMAC group, for THB 46 billion and 200 MW in Chachoengsao; and Singapore's Bridge Data Centres, for THB 24.6 billion and 134 MW in Chonburi.

What is projected, and must not be confused with the above:

And what we do not publish: no source we consulted confirms an approved, quantified investment in Thailand by Google, Microsoft, AWS, Alibaba or NextDC over 2025-2026. The names circulate; their amounts cannot be traced to an approval. Approved is not committed; committed is not built. It is the single most important distinction in the whole file.

What data centres actually move

Not housing prices — no source establishes that, and we will not claim it. What they move is industrial land and the power grid.

The average price of industrial land reached THB 8.4 million per rai in the second quarter of 2026, up 7% year on year (Cushman & Wakefield, July 2026). The imbalance is structural: industrial-estate land supply grew 8% over four to five years while demand grew 18%. Concentration is geographic — Rayong accounts for 33% of 2025 data-centre projects, Chonburi for 32% — and pressure is already spilling over into Chachoengsao, Prachinburi and Samut Prakan, under water and power constraints.

The bottleneck is named precisely by Black & Veatch, in April 2026: not generation, where the reserve margin exceeds 25%, but delivery. "The real challenge lies between generation sources and end-use demands." The megawatt gap. EGAT has announced THB 31 billion of investment to upgrade transmission. Thailand has 514,587 inhabitants per installed megawatt of data-centre capacity, against an Asia-Pacific average of 247,713: a measure of its under-equipment — and therefore of its potential.

The 75% quota and the 99-year lease: the exact state of play

As of 13 September 2026, neither the increase of the foreign ownership quota to 75% nor the extension of leases to 99 years has been adopted. The ceiling of 49% of the total unit floor area of a condominium building and the maximum 30-year lease remain the applicable law.

The verifiable history comes down to three dates. June 2024: first public announcement of the policy under consideration. July 2025: the 99-year lease bill is in public consultation, led by the Ministry of Interior under the Paetongtarn Shinawatra government, with agricultural land explicitly excluded. Since the change of government in February 2026, no dated legislative step has been publicly documented — no Council of State opinion, no Cabinet approval, no parliamentary reading.

So we write neither "abandoned", nor "suspended", nor "imminent": nothing supports any of these. The verifiable status is: never adopted, with no documented legislative progress to date. Any agency marketing today on the promise of a 99-year lease is selling a hypothesis.

Tourism, and the target nobody quotes any more

Over the first eight months of 2026, Thailand welcomed 20.93 million international visitors, down 3.08% year on year. One target and two forecasts coexist nonetheless: the 36.7 million target set by the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) and repeated by CBRE in February — a target, not a forecast; around 35 million forecast by C9 Hotelworks (February); and volumes "close to 2025" according to the Ministry of Tourism (September). With 32.9 million arrivals in 2025 and 2026 running below that, the 36.7 million target is out of reach.

The same thing happened a year earlier: 40 million announced for 2025 — the top of the official range, repeated by CBRE — against 32.9 million achieved. An official target has been quietly dropped mid-year, two years in a row. For anyone modelling a rental yield on an occupancy assumption, that is a lesson in method.

One reversal deserves a mention: China, down 34% in 2025, is up 16.05% over January-August 2026 and is once again the largest source market, with 3.54 million visitors. South Korea, by contrast, is down 24.78%.

When we model Sophie's case

The dashboard, as of 13 September 2026

What you can do now

Three checks, in this order, before any viewing.

Ask the developer for the number of units actually transferred in its previous project, not the number of units reserved. The 40% rejection rate sits between reservation and transfer.

Compare the asking price with the resale price in the same district, not with other new projects. In Phuket, the gap between primary and secondary condominium prices was 39% in May 2025; in Bangkok, the downtown-suburban divergence works the same way.

Finally, if someone mentions a 99-year lease or a 75% quota, ask for the reference of the text and its date of publication in the Royal Gazette. There is none.